Football Spread Picks Year End Wrap up

Hello everybody, I'm back!  You may want to call me "Three Fourths" next year because after starting off really weak, I finished up like a true contender does.  I ended up getting 76.3% of my bets against the spread for the year correct.  Yes, of course that looks all fine and dandy, but does it make me any smarter for the playoffs.  The short answer: NO.  The lines are always so small and games so unpredictable based on the last twenty years of data which I have scoured through to find some sort of edge, and I have realized that is none. But, if you want to know who I would go for, if I was a playoff betting man, here they are.

NYJ (+2.5) over CINCINNATI - I know its not good to base judgment on the last game of the regular season, but I felt that both teams were playing hard for the first two series of the game.  Rex Ryan, the biggest asshole in the game of football, does have some clever defensive schemes.  I love these coaches/owners that go out on a limb and say crazy things, such as Ozzie Guillen and Mark Cuban, but Rex Ryan is not clever, sharp or anything.  I hope Coors Light comes out with a new commercial specifically for this game.  If you want more evidence on why the Bungles will lose, just look to Hard Knocks.

Philly (+4) over DALLAS - The Cowboys are hot, but Romo is Romo.  Could this be Vick's Redeption?

Green Bay (+1) over ARIZONA - The Cardinals are hurt and do not have enough fight in them after making their improbable run last year.

Am I too ballsy to take the three road teams?  I stay away from the Patriots games in the playoffs because it is too conflicting to comprehend.

Football Spread Picks Week 15

So I did not have time to make the picks public last week. But it was a very good week for the Zeus, I went 11 of 16, and hit on my two best bets of the week. Sadly, since today is Thursday and I already know the result of the game today, I am 0-fer 1 on my best bets this week. Without further ado.

JACKONVILLE (-3.5) over Indy - How are the guys that set the lines so smart? It was one of my best bets of the week.

Dallas (-7.5) over NEW ORLEANS - One of the two undefeated teams must fall this week.

New England (+7.5) over Buffalo - The Patriots still have a lot to prove. Many people think after the loss to Miami their reign is over as a supreme team.

Arizona (-10.5) over DETROIT - How many people in America want to seriously injure Kurt Warner this week after ruining countless fantasy seasons on Monday Night?

TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Miami - Very interesting matchup of two potential playoff teams.  I am going off of old knowledge of the Titans of last year finally getting their act in gear.  My advice, do not bet on this game.

KANSAS CITY (-2.5) over Cleveland - Can they cancel this game?

Houston (-9.5) over ST.LOUIS - Kinda nervous about that pick, I feel the Rams are just playing for all the pride they have left in their system this week.  But the Texans are still trying, after around 5 years in the league that they are not a joke.

Atlanta (+6.5) over NYJ - A rookie quarterback cost his team the season a few weeks ago by not learned from Joe Giradiri, but did you except anymore? And if you did, did you expect the 1.21 gigawatts to come true too?

San Fran (+7.5) over PHILLY - Classic class of the let down week after a big win over the Giants last week.

Chicago (+10.5) over Baltimore - Jay Cutler wants to prove he is worth his money and Ray Lewis wants to prove that he is not washed up. Sadly, the NFL has now instituted a steroid policy when eliminates steroids and murder.  Sorry Ray Lewis.

Cincinnati (+6.5) over SAN DIEGO - Hard to bet against a team with a player that just passed away.

Oakland (+13.5) over DENVER - Too large of a spread.

PITTSBURGH (-0.5) over Green Bay - Too many embarassing losses to DA BURG to endure in a row.

SEATTLE (-7.5) over Tampa Bay - When coaches come out and say their team is underestimated, they better back it up.

Minnesota (-7.5) over Carolina - The Panthers simply cannot find a way to win a football game. and after their spread against NE last week.  This is a no brainer.

NYG (-3.5) over Washington - The Redskins?

BEST BETS - Jags & Cowboys (already 0-1) but overall prior to this week (16-12)

Football Spread Picks Week 13

Last week split em with an average 7 for 15 week, keeping me in the 58 percentile. Usually it gets easier to make bets as the season progresses because you know more about the teams but not true this week.  There were at least three games that I knew were just a crapshoot.  Do not have much time to put together much here since I am trying to buy a car today and also move on Sunday. But without further ado...

Jets (-3.5) over Buffalo - Nobody in Toronto cares about anything but the Grey Cup and we all saw how that ended.

Philly (-4.5) over ATLANTA - Matt Ryan is hurt is main reason, but still shaky with a head injured DeShawn and Vick.

CHICAGO (-8.5) over St. Louis - Will Stephen Jackson leave the Rams to go to a team people can actually watch?

CINCINNATI (-13.5) over Detroit - Lions do have a lot of rest, but that can't make up for lack of talent at every position.

Tennessee (+6.5) over INDY - The Titans are the hot team right now, they did have the best record in the AFC last year, so there are definitely quality players there.  I also do not want to see a team go undefeated and I think if Vince Young doesn't do it, nobody will.

Denver (-4.5) over KC - After starting out so hot, the Broncos need to beat the bad teams to have a scent of the playoffs.

New Orleans (-8.5) over WASHINGTON - As shown on MNF, the Saints are the best team in the league, dismantling a decent Patriots team. The Redskins are not nearly as good as the Pats, this is the easiest pick of the week.

Tampa Bay (+6.5) over CAROLINA - There is 0 trust in Jake the Snake.

Houston (+0.5) over Jacksonville - Mediocre teams, neither is making the playoffs.

Oakland (+11.5) over PITTSBURGH - Da Burger should be back but I feel the Steelers are stumbling and really need to get on course, they squeeze out an emotional victory, even if it is against the Raiders.

New England (-6.5) over MIAMI - Losing Ronnie Brown definitely made the Wildcat lose a lot of its luster, but Ricky Williams has shown that he can still be a productive back in the non-pot smoking league.  The Patriots need to answer for looking abhorrent last week at the Saints.

San Diego (-12.5) over Cleveland - Did you hear Brady Quinn is dating Alicia Sacramone?

San Fran (+0.5) over SEATTLE - Another easy pick in my mind. Gut feeling

NYG (+1.5) over Dallas - Giants need win for playoff push, unless plantar acts up, they should be able to pull it off.

Minnesota (-3.5) over ARIZONA - Matt Leinart needs to go back to college co-eds.  And who could blame him.  Brett Favre needs to go back to robbing the grave.

Baltimore (+3.5) over GREEN  BAY - Winner of this make the playoffs and the other one leaves the entire franchise and fans disgusted.

BEST BET OF WEEK - Saints & San Fran (overall 14-12)

Football Spread Picks Week 12

Split last week going 7 for 15.  Games start tomorrow for thanksgiving. Here is the quick rundown.

Thanksgiving Day or as I like to call it, All Favorites Day

Green Bay (-10.5) over DETROIT

DALLAS (-13.5) over Oakland

NYG (-6.5) over DENVER

Sunday

Tampa Bay (+11.5) over ATLANTA

Miami (-3.5) over BUFFALO

CINCINNATI (-13.5) over Cleveland

Seattle (-2.5) over ST LOUIS

NYJ (-3.5) over Carolina

PHILLY (-9.5) over Washington

Indy (-3.5) over HOUSTON

Kansas City (+13.5) over SAN DIEGO

Jacksonville (+3.5) over SF

Arizona (+0.5) over TENNESSEE

Chicago (+10.5) over MINNESOTA

BALTIMORE (-2.5) over Pittsburgh

New England (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS

BEST BETS - NYJ, Seattle, Indy and Miami (overall 12-11)

Football Spread Picks Week 11

I almost didn't put up my weeks this week after such an abbhorent week 10. I went 3 of 14 to drop to around 55%, which is still a little above where Vegas wants me to be. But after finding the old woman pictured above, I could not help myself. I gave purpose to my life.



Miami (+3.5) over CAROLINA - I know a day late, but that doesn't mean a buck short, I almost made up for all my mistakes last weekend in one game.

Cleveland (+3.5) over DETROIT - When was the last time the Lions were favored in a game? The Lions have had top 5 draft choices the last ten years and they still can't manage a win over Brady Quinn Medicine Woman.

San Fran (+6.5) over GREEN BAY - The Packers win over the Cowboys did not convince me of anything, other than the only good player in Dallas is Miles Austin. Neither of these teams make the playoffs.

Pittsburgh (-9.5) over KANSAS CITY - The Chiefs have a lot to improve on, and that's not going to happen against Steel City. The Chiefs have lost LJ and Bowe the last two weeks, this franchise is a mess. I feel bad for Cassell, but his bank account doesn't.

DALLAS (-11.5) over Washington - I still think the Redskins are the worst team in the NFL and the top 5 college teams could beat them.

NYG (-6.5) over Atlanta - What happened to the Falcons of last year? What happened to the Giants of the last two years? I think the G-Men still got it and Matty Ice was a one year wonder ala Joey Harrington.

TAMPA BAY (+11.5) over New Orleans - The Saints are the 2nd best team in the league right now (behind Indy) but I think they are going to have trouble against the Bucs and will only win by 10 points.

Buffalo (+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE - For some reason after seeing the Bills play the Patriots in week one I always think they have a chance to break out and become a decent football team, and it has cost me every week yet I continue to back them. This is the reason why Vegas makes money, people are stubborn.

Indy (+0.5) over Baltimore - How can you ever count the Colts out of a game after last week? I know these teams always go at it hard and the Ravens are at home, but you're not showing Peyton Manning much respect with this line. I would have guessed it would have been -1.5 Colts.

MINNESOTA (-11.5) over Seattle - Minnesota defense and running back are best in game right now. Their WR are also in the running for that distinction, lets not talk about their QB.

Arizona (-8.5) over ST.LOUIS - I have never liked Kurt Warner since his days bagging groceries, but the guy somehow knows how to win even at this advance age with less than half the tools that the traitor (BF) has.

San Diego (-2.5) over DENVER - Surprised the line is not higher for the only fact that Kyle Orton is hurt. Chris Simms gave the game away last week and now owes me a chunk of change, you can't trust a man like that. (LDT needs to get act together to ruin fantasy lives right now)

Cincinnati (-9.5) over OAKLAND - All it took was the Bungals to beat the Steelers to get respect from Vegas.

NYJ (+10.5) over NEW ENGLAND - I know these are both teams going different directions. I know one coach cried at his press conference and the other admitted his mistake. But I also know these teams always play each other close.

CHICAGO (+3.5) over Philly - I can't figure either of these teams out from week to week so I try to stay away from them.

HOUSTON (-4.5) over Tennessee - Ever seen Vince Young tried to kill himself, it has been hard for me to put faith in his as a QB of a professional franchise.

BEST BETS - After my absolute sure things last week backfired due to injury and stupidity, I like the Dolphins, Jets, and the Chargers. (All Time 10-10)

Football Spread Picks Week 10

I have been saying this for weeks, but luck has turned around.  Once again I put up an impressive 7 correct week.  Currently, based against the rest of America, I live in the 60th percentile.  All it took was three good weeks of picks.  I am like a freight train flattening pennies now.  Going to try to do a theme this week, with a question about each of the games.

Thursday Night - Picked Chi (+3.5) over ST and lost

New Orleans (-13.5) over St LOUIS - The best team in the league versus the worst team.  How many quarters does Drew Brees play?

MIAMI (-9.5) over Tampa Bay - Dolphins are a much better team than they get credit for.  The only thing that makes me nervous about them is there passing game is non-existent.  Can the Dolphins move the ball in the air to score if they are down late?

Detroit (+16.5) over MINNESOTA - Vikings win based on their defense.

NYJ (-6.5) over Jacksonville - The Jets are coming out of the bye hungry and want to force their point to make the playoffs, which probably won't happen.  Who quarterbacks the Jaguars?

Buffalo (+6.5) over TENNESSEE - Does anybody remember Vince Young from two years ago?

PITTSBURGH (-6.5) over Cincinnati - I don't believe in the Bengals and the Steelers are getting ready for a late January run. DA BURGH?

Denver (-4.5) over WASHINGTON - Have the oddsmakers watched any games by these teams this season?

Atlanta (-1.5) over CAROLINA - Have the oddsmakers watched any games by these teams this season?

OAKLAND (-1.5) over Kansas City - Will anybody watch this game? 

SAN DIEGO (-2.5) over Philly - Which team will show up, the team that lost to the Raiders or the team that thought Michael Vick was a good pickup?

Seattle (+8.5) over ARIZONA - Will Kurt Warner die this week?

GREEN BAY (+2.5) over Dallas - Everybody on your dick, Tony Romo? (kanye)

New England (+2.5) over INDY - ????????

CLEVELAND (+10.5) over Baltimore - Does Brady Quinn show any signs of being a no 1 quarterback?

BEST BETS -  Denver and Atlanta (overall 9-8)

Football Spread Picks Week 9

This is first post from the new residence in West Springfield, MA.  Lots of errands and yardwork to get done when you live in the suburbs.  I know I missed putting up the picks last week, but I went 7 for 13 last week and 10 for 13 the week before.  As I predicted a few weeks ago, I get better with age, I have jumped above the 50th percentile into the 53.9th.  And like a big rig with no brakes going down a big hill, there is no runoff lane and no signs of stopping.

ATLANTA (-10.5) over Washington - Falcons need to prove they still deserve to be in the elite of the NFC and beating the Redskins doesn't really prove much unless you embarrass them, lets make it happen Matt Ryan.

Arizona (+3.5) over CHICAGO - Cutler just whines, he can't even win over a very shaky Cardinal team.  Also, with the Cards starting a RB named Beanie, you either gotta love or hate him, there is no middle ground.

BALTIMORE (-2.5) over Cincinnati - I don't think the Bengals record reflects their talent, even with a healthy Palmer, Ochocinco, and Benson.  Baltimore is by far the best team flying a little below the radar.

Houston (9.5) over INDY - The Colts struggled last week but pulled off the win, I think this week will be a repeat performance, they have a few injuries.  I'm just hoping its not a statement game saying last week was a fluke.

Miami (+10.5) over NE - I'm scared of the Wildcat, I'm not gonna lie.  With two talented backs and the extra blocker, ten points is way too much to give.

TAMPA BAY (+10.5) over Green Bay - Everybody wants to be the wild card

Kansas City (+6.5) over JACKSONVILLE - When did Jacksonville deserve to be a touchdown favorite over a fellow bad team?  Plus, I think with LJ gone, KC will be coming out playing with something to prove.

Detroit (+10.5) over SEATTLE - Two bad teams means a close game and at least 7 turnovers.

NEW ORLEANS (+14.5) over Carolina - Does Jack Deholme retired after this game?

NYG (+3.5) over San Diego - Can't trust SD yet, still don't think they are firing at all cylinders, the same argument can be made for the Giants though. Gotta go with the home team.

SF (+4.5) over Tennessee - San Francisco has a lot of positive energy, a new QB, a healthy Frank Gore, and hope.  First time that's been in 49er land since Steve Young.

PHILLY (-3.5) over Dallas - The Eagles have to give some sort of hope to the fans of Philly.  We also have Roy Williams channeling his inner T.O. this week.

Da Burg (-3.5) over DENVER - The Broncos flaws are further exposed every week from now til the playoffs.

BEST BETS - Miami & San Fran (Overall 8-7)

Football Spread Picks Week 7

So I'm taking a break from watching every episode of Breakfast at Sulimays to put together a winning lottery ticket for all you out there.  I jumped over 10 percentile points in the last two weeks, so like cheese I just get better with age.  I almost made a 50% correct week with getting 6 out of 13 matchups correct.  This looks like a week where people can make a lot of money, just be careful of developing flaming dick syndrome from your excitement (seen above)

Green Bay (-7.5) over CLEVELAND - Brady Quinn misses out on his 10 million dollar bonus by not playing a snap in this game.  The biggest question in Cleveland is who is their third string quarterback, he may be the only hope left in that franchise.

San Diego (-4.5) over KANSAS CITY - After watching SD on MNF last week, they have all the pieces to put together a run, LDT looks like he is slowly but surely getting his act back together.  They just ran into a hot Denver team.  Kansas City looks like another team with little hope left.

San Fran ( +3.5) over HOUSTON - I have backed the Texans too many times before and gotten burned.  I think a healthy Frank Gore, coming back from the bye week, will be able to carry this team to a first round play off loss.

Indy (-13.5) over St. Louis - This line makes me nervous because I think that Manning will not play much in the 2nd half.  I haven't seen a team give up so badly in a long time as the Rams have.  Where did the parity go NFL?

DA BURGGG (-4.5) over Minnesota - After nobody noticed when the big burger dropped over 400 yards last week, everybody is going to notice when Brett Farve starts going back to his old ways throwing picks and blaming everybody but himself.  It is definitely going ot be a statement game for the Steelers and a reality check for the Vikings.

TAMPA BAY (+14.5) over New England - London game: no idea of crowd or field conditions, but apparently Tom Brady proved last week that it doesn't matter.  Patriots win, just not by more than two touchdowns.

Buffalo (+7.5) over CAROLINA - Did I black out for a week where Vegas decided that the Panthers deserved to be favored, lets not even talk about more than a touchdown.

CINCINNATI (-1.5) over Chicago - Tough call, just two average teams, went with home team.

Atlanta (+3.5) over DALLAS - Does the new stadium really make that big a swing in the spread?  Dallas has not done a thing this whole season to impress me.  Just because they get all the hype by being "America's Team," the oddsmakers show them love. (so they can steal their money)

NYJ (-6.5) over Oakland - Oakland gave me the biggest shock of the season by beating Philly, but not enough for me to back them the next week.  Especially with an angry Jets defense going against JaMarcus Russell, who doesn't even complete 40% on his passes.  The Sanchize did not surprise me throwing all those picks, you knew it was going to come eventually, just not against a Bills team.

MIAMI (+6.5) over New Orleans - Yes, the Saints put up the most impressive game of the seasons and are without question the best team in football, buttt I really think the Dolphins can surprise people.  I did not believe in the Wildcat initially, but after seeing the last few Dolphins game, it is hard to stop Ronnie Brown and a rejuvenated and weed-free Ricky Williams. The AFC East is actually turning into good division again with NE, NYJ, and Miami all legitimate playoff contenders

Arizona (+7.5) over NYG - The Giants are embarrassed.  The Cardinals want to prove the Super Bowl run wasn't a fluke. This game is closer than a touchdown.

Philly (+7.5) over WASHINGTON - The Redskins are that bad.

BEST BETS OF WEEK : The Jets and the Bills.  My best bets are improving, just wait, its been 4 in a row for those of you counting out there. (6-7 all time)

Football Spread Picks Week 6

Dont have time or effort to write analysis. Diplo rocked out too hard last night.  Gotta get energy back up for Chromeo tonight. Here is the picks.  Did really well last week, got 8 out of 13.

CINCINNATI (-4.5) over Houston
DETROIT (+13.5) over Green Bay
Baltimore (+2.5) over MINNESOTA  -   Favre breaks down
NYG (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS
TAMPA BAY (+2.5) over Carolina
Kansas City (+6.5) over WASHINGTON
JACKSONVILLE (-9.5) over St. L
Cleveland (+14.5) over DA BURGGG
Arizona (+2.5) over SEATTLE
Philly (-14.5) over OAKLAND
Buffalo (+9.5) over NYJ
NEW ENGLAND (+9.5) over Tennessee
Chicago (+3.5) over ATLANTA
SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over Denver

LOCK OF WEEK -  Kansas City & Buffalo (overall 4-7)

Football Spread Picks Week 5

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Once again,my genius has been foiled.  After thinking picking all away teams would cover, I completely got rocked only getting 3 of 14 games right. That is definitely worth a FAIL. Back to the 31 percentile.  Does anybody win gambling? Does anybody truly enjoy gambling? Further to that point, does anybody enjoy fantasy football.  It makes you wicked nervous about the games, the only upside is it gives you interest in every game each weekend. (maybe not this one since there are only 1 or 2 marquee matchups)

BUFFALO (-6.5) over Cleveland - Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Home team brings it, plus Braylon Edwards drunkenly attacked LeBron.  That will get you cut in a heartbeat in any city.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over DETROIT - Everybody remember the 0-16 Lions last year when Dante Culpepper started? Well those days are back again this week.

KC (+8.5) over Dallas - I don't think either of these teams are very good, but I have to go with a winless Chiefs team at home, just playing for a little respect.

Minnesota (-10.5) over ST LOUIS - The Vikings looked really good on MNF, (as much as I hate Favre) their defense is like Hannibal riding over the mountains. (Happy to have them on my fantasy squad)  The Rams are the worst team in professional football, that's not my opinion, its a fact.

NYG (-16.5) over Oakland - Things always get dicey, when you have an over two touchdown spread.  JaMarcus Russell is that bad, that I think the Raiders deserve it, especially with the Giants at home.  I am not at all worried about Eli's plantar injury.

PHILLY (-13.5) over Tampa Bay - This is the week of big spreads and bad games.  This game makes me nervous about the QB situation. Obviously the Eagles will win, but by how much is the question.  I feel confident that the Bucs are that bad.

Washington (+1.5) over CAROLINA - I've tried to think the Panthers would break out at some point this season every week this year, so now I think the Skins are going to get two wins in a row after the abysmal loss to the Lions.

BALTIMORE (-8.5) over Cincinnati - I think this is going to be the Ravens statement game, after narrowly losing to the Pats last weekend.  I think the Ravens can bounce back, plus Cincinnati was having a lot of trouble just beating the Browns.

SF (-2.5) over Atlanta - Learning from my mistakes, this is almost too close to call, so I went with the home team. I still don't trust the 49ers yet, but I think thats how the gambling gods get ya.

SEATTLE (-1.5) over Jacksonville - Another bad game between two bad teams, I think Seneca Wallace has one more win in him before he gives the job back to its rightful owner, Hasselbeck.

Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA - These are two tough to read teams, Houston lost to Jets early before we knew how good the Jets were.  The Cards did make the Super Bowl last year and have a 70 year old Arena League quarterback.  This time I didn't learn my lession, taking the away team.

New England (-3.5) over DENVER - The Patriots have played an undefeated team in every game so far this season.  This game will expose all of the Broncos flaws, and reinstate Brady as an elite quarterback.

Indy (-3.5) over TENNESSEE - This is the no brainer of the weekend. Hard to bet against Peyton Manning right now, and hard to bet for the Titans.  Last year in Tennessee was a flash in the pan, but people don't believe it yet.

NYJ (-1.5) over MIAMI - The Monday night matchup, Miami has a new quarterback under center, but he only takes 40% of the snaps with the wildcat offense being used so frequently.  I think the hungry Jets defense will be ready and shut it down.

BET OF WEEK - The Colts trample the Titans (OVERALL 3-7)

Football Spread Picks Week 4

That picture represents my picks from the last few weeks.  A hot girl drops a huge log and has to get dirty and plunge it out herself. We have all been there, some have even been there without the plunger. Last week I went 7 for 16, so that is 3 straight weeks of under .500 ball. Thats not going to make the playoffs. To add insult to injury my fantasy team is also 0-3, mostly due to the fact that I have 0 wide receivers, trades wanted.  I did jump from the 30th percentile to the 34.5 percentile. So as we get further into the season, one could only predict that my picks will be more accurate.

Detroit (+10.5) over CHICAGO - Am I the only one that doesn't think the Bears are very good.  But then again, I think the Lions are better than they have been in the last four seasons, which isn't that hard to do.  If the Lions could pull off two wins in a row, there will be riots in Detroit bigger than the Rodney King riots.

Cincinnati (-5.5) over CLEVELAND - Each Cleveland QB played a half last week, one threw one pick and was named the starter at the beginning of the season and the other threw three picks with a QB rating of 30.9%.  Its obvious the Mangenius would put Derek Anderson in the starting role this week right?

INDY (-8.5) over Seattle -  Seattle is not good and Indy is.

Giants (-10.5) over KC - The Chiefs are not trying this season, what other reason would they practically give away Tony Gonzo?

Tampa Bay (+7.5) over WASHINGTON - How can the team that just lost to Detroit be favored by over a touchdown a week later?

Tennesee (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE - Its now or never for the Titans, I really mean it this week, the Titans looked really good in the 2nd half against the Jets, now they can finally get their act in gear against the lowly Jags.

Oakland (+9.5) over HOUSTON - This is the week that JaMarcus Russell completes more than 30% of his pass attempts.

Baltimore (+2.5) over NEW ENGLAND - Has New England put together a full good game yet? I haven't seen it.

Jets (+6.5) over NEW ORLEANS - I don't think the Jets will win, but I do think they will keep it close, around a field goal.

Buffalo (-1.5) over MIAMI - I am coming from the new school and think that the Bills are actually not a bad football team, plus the new QB in Miami makes me nervous.

Dallas (-3.5) over DENVER - The Broncos improbable run is over and Americas team gets back on track.

St. Louis (+10.5) over SAN FRAN - I don't know where the ten point love for the Niners is coming from especially with a hurt Frank Gore.

San Diego (+6.5) over PITTSBURG - DA BURG wins this game, but Rivers keeps this game closer.  I think the Steelers still have big problems running the ball.

Green Bay (+3.5) over MINNESOTA - This is Aaron Rodgers coming out party, giving the big middle finger to the three ring traveling Farve show.

Some casual observations, I only chose one home team to cover, the Colts.  To gain big rewards you have to make big risks.

BEST BET OF WEEK - Tampa Bay & Tennesee & Buffalo, can anybody say teaser? (overall 2-5)

Football Spread Picks Week 3

Here we are entering week 3 of the regular season.  Has not been a super crazy season so far, Detroit still hasn't won any games and my picks still aren't working out.  Last week was an improvement to 8 out of 16 games, rising me into the 30th percentile according to ESPN dot com.  If you think about it, if you bet against each one of my picks you would make more money, so bet your spaghetti boxes accordingly. On to the goodies. All spreads are from the time I places my bets, they may have moved from there.  And all you Z Filers out there, realize I love you so much that I am holding out watching my Thursday night television trifecta of Parks & Recreation, The Office and Always Sunny to give you something to read on your Friday afternoon workday.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CINCINNATI :  DA BURG was just playing with all you last week, they still got it and Carson Palmer doesn't

DETROIT (+6.5) over Washington : This is the classic case of two of the worst teams in the league going head to head.  The law of averages (which is the worst logic ever to use gamblign) is telling me that Detroit will finally win a game.

Green Bay (-6.5) over ST LOUIS : I don't trust this bet at all or Aaron Rodgers.

San Francisco (+7.5) over MINNESOTA : I think the 49ers are actually pretty good. Plus, for the only time this team the Peterson factor may be equalized by Gore.  The Vikings are the most difficult gambling team of all time, first you have Favre who you know is going to throw picks, second it's just so hard to bet again a team with Peterson on it.

Atlanta (+4.5) over NEW ENGLAND : Let me just say this, I think the Falcons are better team overall

TENNESSEE (+2.5) over Jets : Okay, I'll admit, the Jets have a very very good defense, I am skeptical about their offense still.  They never make Sanchez take any risks, but then again neither did Bill Belicheck when Tom Brady was coming up.  This is a must win for the Titans, easy game to pick.

Kansas City (+9.5) over PHILLY : The Chiefs are not a playoff team, but I think they can hang with good teams.  Its unbelievable to me that Philly has 4 proven to semi-proven quarterbacks on one team.  In this instance, I think it works against them.

TAMPA BAY (+7.5) over Giants : The Giants did not impress me last week against the Cowboys.

BALTIMORE (-13.5) over Cleveland : So hard to bet with such a big spread, it always tells me to go against it, but I think the Ravens are that good and the Browns are that bad, especially with Myloplex Quinn at QB.

HOUSTON (-2.5) over Jacksonville : The Texans are at home, simple as that.

Chicago (-1.5) over SEATTLE : Do not trust Seattle without Hasselbeck.  Thinking about it, I don't really trust Cutler either.

New Orleans (-5.5) over Buffalo : The coming out party for Buffalo is going to have to wait another week.  The Saints offensive explosion is too impressive.

Denver (+1.5) over OAKLAND : The Raiders have shown 0 reason why they should be favored, even if by so little.

Miami (+5.5) over SAN DIEGO : The Dolphins did impressive me on Monday Night against the Colts.  I think they will finally be able to make a 3rd down stop this week.

Indy (+1.5) over ARIZONA : Everybody in America knew that Peyton Manning was going to lead his team to the winning touchdown on Monday night.  Is anybody willing to bet against him this week?

Carolina (+9.5) over DALLAS : Every week I keep thinking the Panthers are not as bad as they have been playing. I think this is the week they actually prove it.  The new funhouse in Dallas goes another week without a win.

BEST BETS : The Titans no questions (overall 2-4)

Football Spread Picks

Well, last week did not go so hot, I lost a few boxes of spaghetti.  I went 5-16, for the 10% percentile according to ESPN.  But this week I'm coming back die hard with a vengence style (more so than the lowly Jets)  In other news, this blog is taking on a life of its own, I have surpassed the 1000 click barrier and earned a little cash on the side as a professional blogger.  As usual spreads from sportsbook and home team in CAPS

Carolina (+6.5) over ATLANTA : Jake the Snake finally gets his act together enough to save his job.  I do not think the Panthers will actually win, I just think it will be closer than the spread says.

Vikings (-9.5) over DETROIT : The Lions are hideous, and as much as I hate Brett Favre and never want to bet in his favor, I cannot stop the presence that is Adrian Peterson, especially against the lowly Lions, who are showing no sign of making another win this year.

PACKERS (-9.5) over Cincinnati : The ten point spread is scaring me, but what is scaring me more is betting on the Hard Knocks team as well as this game is at Lambeau, which is always a hard place to play.

TENNESSEE (-7.5) over Houston: Well, since everybody is jumping off the Texans bandwagon after one week, I will too. Plus the Titans played very well against Da Burg last week and I feel with roll over the Texans at home.

Oakland (+3.5) over KANSAS CITY : I thought Oakland played much better than they have in past years, their defense is still pretty shaky but luckily KC's offense isnt any good, Cassell or not.

Patriots (+5.5) over JETS : As anybody who watched the game would have known, in the first half Tom Brady was just working off the rust.  The second half was vintage with the assistance of one of the dumbest fumbles I have ever seen.  With only a 5.5 pt spread, its impossible to bet against the Patriots, especially with all the trash the Jets are talking.

New Orleans (+1.5) over PHILLY : As the Saints showed against the lowly Lions last week, they are not a team to be reckoned with.  Obviously this game will be much closer, but with a shaky maybe injured McNabb, I will gladly take Brees.

WASHINGTON (-10.5) over St. Louis : I don't know why St. Louis is not getting as much hate as the Lions after last weeks performance.  The Skins played okay against the G Men last week but just like the Seahawks rolled, so will the Redskins.

Arizona (+3.5) over JACKSONVILLE : The defending NFC champs are not as bad as they showed last week against the upstart Niners.

Seattle (+1.5) over SAN FRAN : It is difficult betting against all these home teams, but as shown from the last few seasons, as more corporates sponsors continue to get involved, the home stadiums no longer provide the advantage they used to.

Tampa Bay (+4.5) over BUFFALO : If Buffalo taught us anything last week, it is that they know how to give up a lead.

Pittsburgh (-2.5) over CHICAGO : Did anybody else watch Cutler last week, also did anybody watch the Steelers D?

DENVER (-3.5) over Cleveland : I don't fully understand why everybody is against the Broncos, sure they have a shaky QB and a new coach and did not play well last week, but somehow they showed everybody they know how to wins games, but a fluke win is a win in my book.

Baltimore (+4.5) over SAN DIEGO : LDT proved last week that he is washed up, not helping my fantasy season by any means.  Baltimore played really well last week, picking up where they left off from last year, I think these teams are going in two different directions.

Giants (+2.5) over DALLAS : I have no trust in the Cowboys at all, and the Giants have proved over the past few years that they are an elite team and the Cowboys are not.

Indy (-3.5) over MIAMI : Don't trust the Dolphins enough to take them here.

BEST BETS : Baltimore & Pittsburg (last week 1-3, but I guarantee improvement)

Inaugural Football Spread Bets

Week 1 of the NFL regular season, the most wide open betting weekend of the year.  I have been waiting weeks for this. This is the start of a running feature on the Z Files.  Starting today, I am going to teach the world how to get rich quick. All you have to do is follow a few simple suggestions listed here. Without further ado, here are my picks: (Home team in CAPS) (Lines taken from sportsbook dot com at time of publishing)

STEELERS (-5.5) over Titans : Da Burg has almost the whole team from last year returning and needs to stand tall in game one.  Bonus: Kerry Collins is Tennessee's quarterback

Broncos (+3.5) over BENGALS : This is the classic tale of the Hard Knocks curse.  When everybody in America thinks they know everything about the team, they really know nothing.  Bonus: Josh McDaniels has some things to prove immediately

BROWNS (+3.5) over Vikings : Brady Quinn has been waiting two years for this while Brett Farve has been with the team two weeks. Peterson is a bust in game one. Bonus: Brad Childress looks like Tony Kornheiser

COLTS (-6.5) over Jaguars : One of the hardest picks on the ledger this week. Hard to bet against Colts at home.  Maurice Jones-Drew is more hurt than anybody is saying.

Cowboys (-3.5) over BUCS : Could not take the Bucs because I don't know who their quarterback is.

Dolphins (+4.5) over FALCONS : Too much pressure on Matt Ryan and none on Chad Pennington.

SAINTS (-11.5) over Lions : Lions went winless last season and now have a new QB?

RAVENS (-8.5) over Chiefs : People keep forgetting that the Ravens took Da Burg to the final whistle in the AFC Championship.  Also, Matt Cassell is injured and the Chiefs traded Tony Gonzo, whats left there.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Jets : I know this is the trendy pick of the week but who could bet on an away rookie QB .

Eagles (+0.5) over CAROLINA : I know Carolina has a great running game, but look at who you have handing off the ball, Delohme has turned into Joey Harrington.  I thought Philly would get more press about how good they are after signing the Dog Mauler, but that hasnt happened yet.

GIANTS (-6.5) over Redskins : The G Men are coming to prove that David Tyree wasn't a fluke.

Rams (+8.5) over SEAHAWKS : Have nothing against Seattle, just think the spread is too big and St. Louis has improved a lot from last year.

CARDINALS (-6.5) over 49ers : Kurt Warner is healthy for the first game, the rest of the season is a toss-up.

PACKERS (-3.5) over Bears : Tough call here, went with home team with very solid defense.

PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Bills : Is this spread too low? Do the Bills have any offense? The welcome back Tom Brady party is now.

Chargers (-6.5) over RAIDERS : Is the spread too low?  If their was a AAA football league the Raiders could join.

BEST BETS : New England, Philly, Baltimore, and San Diego